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PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2017 - 2021

Posted : 07 March 2017 11:05:56 | By TWO Bureau | New Delhi

PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2017 - 2021

For several decades the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) has published forecasts of international visitor demand across a range of destinations within the Asia Pacific region. The report, to be released in April, contains forecasts for international visitor arrivals to 39 destinations within the region for the period 2017 to 2021.


 
It is important to note that the PATA forecasts relate to visitor arrivals as opposed to tourists (overnight visitors). This is done to consider the many near-border flows across the region that have a significant economic impact.

 

Not every Asia Pacific destination is included, mainly because of data limitations or timing. However, the destinations that are covered by these forecasts account for around 98 percent of the total inbound foreign arrivals into Asia Pacific destinations, as reported by PATA.

 

The forecasting unit of The Hong Kong Polytechnic University (HKPU) has been working for some time with PATA’s Strategic Intelligence Centre (SIC) to refine and further develop the forecasts to improve accuracy and reliability.

 

It comes as no surprise therefore to note that, over the last several years, when the forecasts have been compared to the actual arrival counts, the difference has been just one per cent. The integrity and robustness of these forecasts at the aggregate level is extremely high.

 

EXPECTATIONS FOR 2016

 

Based on year-to-date data and the forecasts for 2016, current estimates are that the destinations as covered in the forecast report will return a combined inbound count in excess of 595 million foreign inbound arrivals. This would represent an annual growth rate of 3.4 percent on  2015 results and an annual volume increase of more than 19.6 million additional foreign arrivals.The origin market profile was dominated by the Asian source markets in 2016 (64.2% relative share), followed by the Americas (17.5%) and then Europe (11.0%).



While the Pacific had the strongest annual growth rate as a supplier of foreign arrivals (6.1%), this was off a relatively small absolute base of arrivals; the conversion to an actual increase in volume a little over 861,000.

 

Asian source markets had both a strong annual growth rate (5.2%) and a large numeric base of arrivals so that the increase in foreign arrivals between 2015 and 2016 equated to more than 19 million. This represents 97 percent of the net gain in additional foreign arrivals between 2015 and 2016.

 

There was significant variation in the dominant suppliers into each of the Asia Pacific regions however, with intra-regional flows for example, accounting for 58 percent of arrivals into the Americas (Americas to the Americas), and 82.6 percent of arrivals into Asia (Asia to Asia). In both cases the intra-regional flows showed the strongest numeric gains in foreign arrivals in 2016, relative to 2015.




Tags : PATA, Global, Forecast, TravelWorldOnline


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