The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released its global air cargo data for January 2025, reporting a 3.2% year-on-year increase in total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK). This marks the 18th consecutive month of growth for the industry. Cargo capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), saw a 6.8% increase compared to January 2024. However, IATA Director-General Willie Walsh highlighted a slowdown in growth compared to the double-digit peaks of 2024. Cargo yields declined by 9.9% from December 2024, while load factors dropped by an average of 1.5 percentage points.
Several economic indicators influenced the air cargo market in January. Global goods trade increased for the ninth consecutive month, rising by 3.3% in December 2024, while industrial production saw a 2.6% increase. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for global manufacturing output reached 50.62, the highest since July 2024, signaling expansion. However, the PMI for new export orders remained just below the growth threshold at 49.37. Inflation also played a role, with consumer prices rising slightly in major markets—3% in the U.S., 2.8% in Europe, and a rebound to 0.5% in China after months of decline. A key factor to monitor is the potential impact of tariff-driven trade policies from the current U.S. administration, which could shape future air cargo demand.
Regional air cargo performance in January varied. Asia-Pacific airlines saw a 7.5% increase in demand, with a 10.9% rise in capacity. North American carriers reported a 5.3% demand growth and a 7.5% capacity increase. European airlines experienced a 1.3% rise in demand, with capacity up by 3.5%. Meanwhile, the Middle East saw an 8.4% decline in demand and a 1.2% drop in capacity. Latin America led global growth with an 11.2% demand increase and a 10.6% rise in capacity. Africa, however, recorded a 3.4% decline in demand, although capacity grew by 5.4%.
International trade lanes expanded in January, with airlines benefiting from rising e-commerce demand in the U.S. and Europe, particularly amid ongoing capacity limitations in ocean shipping. Despite evolving market conditions, the air cargo sector continues to demonstrate resilience, driven by trade growth, manufacturing expansion, and increasing consumer demand.
